Patriots don't need Rob Gronkowski to beat Eagles in the Super Bowl

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski accounted for a team high 19 percent of quarterback Tom Brady’s targets in 2017, including the playoffs. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The New England Patriots’ passing game lost a key cog in the AFC championship game when tight end Rob Gronkowski was knocked out with a concussion after he took a helmet-to-helmet hit from Jacksonville Jaguars safety Barry Church late in the second quarter Sunday.

While he will have two weeks to recover and be cleared by the NFL’s concussion protocol, his availability for the Super Bowl may not even matter, which is odd to say considering his prominence in the Patriots’ offense.

Before his exit, Gronkowski accounted for a team-high 19 percent of quarterback Tom Brady’s targets in 2017, including the playoffs, and a quarter of the team’s receiving yards. He also was responsible for over 18 percent of the team’s yards after the catch, also a team high.

[Patriots in an old, familiar spot headed for a Super Bowl showdown with the Eagles]

In the divisional round against the Tennessee Titans, Gronkowski caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown, giving him at least one touchdown in six consecutive playoff games. Gronkowski was a matchup nightmare that game, lining up as a traditional tight end, as a slot receiver and out wide along the sideline, making a catch against three different members of the Titans secondary, including going 4 for 4 for 41 yards and a score against Pro Bowl and First team all-pro safety Kevin Byard.

Losing such a productive player obviously hurts New England’s offense. Dating back to 2010, the Patriots offense is much more efficient with Gronkowski than it is without him. For example, the team scored 2.9 points per drive with their star tight end compared to 2.3 without him. Their red-zone efficiency, goal-to-go efficiency and expected points per game via the pass are all noticeably better with Gronkowski on the field. However, New England remains an elite offense even in his absence.

The Patriots’ scoring rate of 2.3 points per drive without Gronkowski would tie for the third-best offense in 2017 with the Los Angeles Rams. Their 58 percent red-zone efficiency would rank ninth and be well above average (53 percent). In addition, the Patriots’ scoring six points per game more than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw would rank fifth during the regular season. That’s after coming down from a gaudy 11.5.

2010 to 2017, including playoffs	Points per drive	TD rate	Red-zone efficiency	Goal-to-go efficiency	Expected points per game via the pass
With Gronkowski	2.9	32%	67%	80%	plus-11.5
Without Gronkowski	2.3	23%	58%	75%	plus-6.0

Wideouts Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola stepped up big against a stout Jaguars defense. Cooks caught six of eight targets for 100 yards and Amendola caught 7 of 9 targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns. That helped give Brady a 150.1 passer rating on those throws against the league’s best pass defense this season (70.3 passer rating against, including the playoffs). Cooks is also a deep threat, catching 17 of his team-high 41 targets traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, three of those for touchdowns. Only Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers saw more deep targets (44) this season.

In addition to Cooks and Amendola, Brady can target receiver Chris Hogan plus running backs Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead.

[Bill Belichick again could hardly be bothered with AFC championship trophy]

Hogan caught 34 of his 59 targets for 439 yards and five touchdowns, a career high, during the regular season and is 3-for-8 in the playoffs for 24 yards and a score. Brady had a passer rating of 109 in 2017 (including the playoffs) when targeting one of his running backs out of the backfield, second only to Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (110.4). And all three of New England’s primary pass-catching backs produced above-average yards per route run.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the effect Gronkowski has on the running game. Per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, he was rated as the second-best run-blocking tight end this season with the team averaging 4.1 yards per carry with five touchdowns when running behind him. However, his backup, Dwanye Allen, ranked No. 3 for run-blocking among tight ends, so that drop wouldn’t be as severe as some might think should Gronkowski miss the Super Bowl.

The bottom line is this Patriots team is great with Gronkowski but also very good without him, and would still have more than enough weapons to defeat the Eagles in the Super Bowl if he is unable to suit up.

Read more on the NFL:

Fancy Stats: Which quarterback should the Vikings keep? How about none of them?

Jaguars not alone in noticing the Patriots had just one penalty in AFC championship game

Boston TV station uses Aaron Hernandez photo in tweet about Patriots’ win

Nick Foles has come full circle, and the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl

Titans hire Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel as head coach

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