Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Feb. 4th will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Patriots are five-point favorites over the Eagles, down a half-point from the opening line. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas think will be scored, stands at 48, the same as where it opened.
With two teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy and NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
With a 183-83 record, SportsLine is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second straight season.
And after finishing the regular season on a blistering 74-22 run, it's fresh off a week in which it nailed the Eagles' upset over the Vikings and the Jaguars-Patriots Under. The model has nailed an upset in every round of the playoffs, and anyone who has followed its advice is up big.
With Super Bowl LII now set in stone, the computer simulated the game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
We can tell you the model is loving the Under. It's hitting in 60 percent of simulations, and that's in stark contrast to the general public, who is only backing it 36 percent of the time.
The Eagles are coming off a dominating performance against the Vikings, while the Patriots barely squeezed out a victory over the Jaguars at home, needing to overcome an 11-point deficit.
It was New England's third playoff win in the past 10 years after trailing by 10 or more in the fourth quarter. However, the Patriots lost one of their biggest playmakers during the process.
All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski did not return to Sunday's AFC Championship game after suffering a head injury in the second quarter. He took a hit from Jaguars safety Barry Church late in the first half and was ruled out for the remainder of the game.
During the regular season, he had a team-high 69 receptions for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns.
Gronkowski's injury aside, the 2018 Super Bowl features two of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots finished the regular season fifth in points allowed with 18.5, while the Eagles were fourth with 18.4. If each team sticks to their average in Super Bowl LII, the total won't get above 40.
After simulating the game 10,000 times, SportsLine's advanced model says you can expect 45 points to be scored, easily clearing the Under.
The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl was in Feb. 2005, when the Patriots were seven-point favorites over the Eagles and won 24-21. That score would also fall short of an Over-Under of 48.
The model also has a strong against-the-spread pick for Eagles-Patriots that you absolutely need to see and the projected final score might surprise you. If you go with the model on that one, you'll be up big.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence for Super Bowl LII? Check out the Super Bowl odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which side of the spread is winning well over 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that nailed an upset in every round of the playoffs, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.
Super Bowl 52: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-5.5, 48)
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