7 numbers that explain Michigan's run to the NCAA championship game

There’s only one number that matters for Michigan as the Wolverines prepare to face the Villanova Wildcats for the 2018 NCAA men’s basketball championship: 15. A 15th-straight win would mean a brand new banner to hang in Ann Arbor and the program’s second national title.

The Wolverines cut an unlikely path to the title game, dispatching Cinderellas through brute force, silky shooting, and occasional foreshadowed luck. An unlikely bracket paved the way for a 5-0 start and a place in the biggest game of the season. The true test of Michigan’s mettle will come against a Villanova team that’s been brutally efficient in an undramatic return to the national championship.

While 15 is the number Michigan wants to see Monday night, there are several other numbers the program has to thank for its latest run to the NCAA title game. A handful of stats paint the picture behind coach John Beilein’s path to college basketball’s brightest stage. Here’s what you need to know about the Wolverines.

47

That’s the combined value of each of Michigan’s NCAA tournament opponents’ seeds so far in March — the Wolverines haven’t had to play anyone more highly regarded by the Selection Committee than the six-seed Houston Cougars. Their average opponent has been somewhere between a nine and a 10-seed. Villanova, on the other hand, has faced five opponents whose seeds add up to just 34. Loyola-Chicago, the 11-seed Michigan beat Saturday, faced a slate whose number added up to 28. It’s fair to wonder if the Wolverines have really been tested in this year’s bracket.

45

Michigan, at least on paper, had a much tougher run to its Big Ten tournament title. There, John Beilein’s team struggled with a 14-win Iowa team, then found its rhythm to dispatch Nebraska to set up the run that built the foundation for this year’s title game appearance. First came an 11-point win over then-No. 2 Michigan State. One day later, No. 8 Purdue was next, giving the Wolverines’ two top-10 wins in two games and another trophy to bring back to campus.

Michigan’s combined margin of victory in four conference tournament games? 45 points. The Wolverines may have had an easy path to the title game, but they weren’t untested.

16.6

While Moritz Wagner receives most of the hype for his work as Michigan’s leading scorer, Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews has proven vital to the Wolverines’ postseason success. He’s averaged a team-high 16.6 points per game in the NCAA tournament while ading 6.8 rebounds and a steal. His inside scoring punch — he’s made 60.4% of his two-point shots in five NCAAT games — is a punishing counterbalance to Wagner’s inside-out game and a Michigan rotation loaded with shooters.

12.4

That’s the average margin of victory for the Wolverines during their 14-game win streak -- a list of opponents that includes three top-10 teams at the time (Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue), eight NCAA tournament teams, and NIT champion Penn State. Michigan hasn’t excelled in any one thing over that stretch. Its rebounding, shooting, and turnover numbers paint the team as good across the board, but not great in any one thing save for a top 10 scoring defense that feasted on the Big Ten’s low-tempo teams in a down year for the conference.

The way the Wolverines kill you in 2018 varies on a nightly basis -- and that’s what makes them so dangerous. One night they’ll make 14 of their 24 three-pointers and absolutely run a Sweet Sixteen opponent off the court en route to 99 points. In another they’ll slow down the pace and hold an opponent to just 32% shooting in a low-energy affair. Most recently, they forced 17 turnovers in the Final Four to erase a double-digit second half deficit.

Michigan has a wide range of strengths, which makes the team difficult to plan for. It’s wrecked opponents in the prior month thanks to that flexibility.

6.5

The spread for Monday night’s game between the Wildcats and Wolverines. You might think that doesn’t put much faith in Michigan, but if Beilein’s team can keep this game close to the bettor’s handicap, it will be the first since February 28 to even get within single digits of beating Villanova.

Four

Only four players in NCAA history have posted a 20-point, 15-rebound performance in the Final Four or later — Hakeem Olajuwon, Larry Bird, Emeka Okafor, and now after Saturday’s epic showing, Moritz Wagner. The 6’10 German ended Loyola-Chicago’s Cinderella run with a 24-point, 15-rebound game that dragged the Wolverines into the national championship game. While Wagner made 10 of his 16 shots (62.5%), the rest of his team shot a mere 34.8% from the field.

One

That’s the number of NCAA titles Michigan basketball has claimed in its history. The last time the Wolverines came this close was in 2013, when Louisville triumphed in the national final. The Cardinals have since been forced to vacate that banner due to multiple repeated violations of NCAA rules, leaving Michigan the last team standing in a year with no champion.

That’s something that lingers around the program, even though all the players who starred on that runner-up* team have since moved on. Beilein remains, however, and he’ll be able to use that snub to motivate his current crop of players. The 2013 Wolverines were beaten on a playing field the NCAA later ruled uneven. A win on Monday would finally wash the taste of that defeat from their mouths.

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